by
Lt Gen PG Kamath
(Veteran)
China’s belligerence
has always been to remind India of its place that at best it can remain only as
a South Asian Power. She has to be in a subsidiary status to China while
she tries in vain to pursue her ill-founded dream of ‘Middle Kingdom’.
China also suffers from a severe inferiority complex as they had undergone a
century of humiliation from 1850 to 1950, when China was humbled, subjugated,
exploited and literally drugged with opium. Their Summer Palace at
Beijing was raided, looted and burnt. China in the first of half of the
20th Century was in the throes of a civil war for nearly two decades to emerge
as PRC. Smarting under the humiliation she underwent; she is determined
to wreck the world and satisfy her false ego and redeem insults that the world
had once heaped on her. India certainly cannot be a whipping
boy for China’s pursuit to avenge the injustice meted out to her in the
past.
How should India deal
with China? She has to be paid in her own coin. China respects strength
and if one bow to her, she would insist on bending one’s knees as well.
However, if you are prepared to give her a bloody nose, she would benevolently
smile at you and would wax eloquent on China-India; Civilisational links and
need for the Asian Giants to cooperate against the Western exploitation; or
some such narrative to neuter the situation and wait for a suitable time to
crush you down. India in her all-pervasive naivety always trusted China.
It is high time to wake up and deal with China empowered with ‘Chanakya Niti’.
I have tried to list
a number of actions we should take to counter China; however, the list is not
comprehensive. All the suggested measures cannot be taken immediately but
it should be our ultimate agenda. The time plan could vary from one
year to a decade. Many more points can be added however, I want to
caution the skeptics not to discount any points. Some of them may not
look practical at this point in time but may seem viable in a future time
frame. Please note a decade is only a blip in the life of a nation; one
may have to plan for a minimum period of half a century at one
time.
Immediate Concern
Restore Status quo
ante Bellum on the LAC as on 15 April 2020. Please do not
bother about the close collusion between the CPC and Congress; we can deal with
the latter’s treachery later. Now, concentrate to restore the LAC. This
is the litmus test to test our political will against China. India should
not get involved in the endless dialogue on this issue as the delay will only
legitimise the Chinese Occupation of No Man’s Land at Finger 4 at Pangong
Tso. As per reports he has further built-in areas vacated by him.
The entire process should not get delayed and should follow a strict verifiable
time plan. China will not withdraw easily as Xi needs an honourable exit
with some gains in hand. India need to occupy areas ahead of LAC in
other sectors as quid pro quo. There is a need for us to take initiative
in other areas where he is not prepared. I still do not rule out a local
skirmish with weapons that could fulminate into bigger but limited
conflict.
Psychological
Operations (Psy Ops) Against China. India should not hesitate to
launch psy operations against China to expose her expansionist actions.
President Trump, Prime Minister Abe, President Putin, German Chancellor, French
President, PM of UK, Taiwan and ASEAN should be briefed on Chinese aggression.
We should release imageries to show Chinese expansion date wise for the world
to understand China’s aggression. Enough of inert statements, when China
has gone ballistics on naming India as an aggressor.
Overcome the
onslaught of Covid-19. Redouble the effort to find a vaccine and
simultaneously give all the resources to states to overcome the surge that is
likely to happen in Sep/Oct. The challenge with the government is to
ensure economic growth during the nations fight against Corona Virus.
Review the
Intelligence Set up in the country. It appears that the entire
intelligence set up in the country works under the NSA. I will not
discuss this aspect now, as the LAC is still hostile and an eyeball to eyeball
situation prevails. It certainly needs a relook and the overall
coordination has to be done by the DIA, who should keep the CDS, three service
Chiefs and NSA updated simultaneously. Ultimately, the intelligence is
required to keep the forces posted in order to pre-empt enemy and neutralise
his designs. I have a feeling that the intelligence is held up at NSA
Secretariat without proper dissemination to required agencies who need to take
action. Competition among different intelligence agencies and the
tendency to breast the tape with vital intelligence inputs is stalling its free
flow to the armed forces, who need to act upon it. Whatever be the reason, a
thorough review of intelligence set up of the country should be carried
out. Strategic intelligence should have given us an indication of the
build-up in Ngari, Hotan and Kashgar Prefectures. Troops most probably
were the local troops available in the Western Theatre Command and it is
assumed that troops from other Theatre Commands were not requisitioned.
Diplomatic Measures
Renounce One China Policy
Renounce
‘One China Policy’ and insist it would be quid pro quo to China declaring ‘One
India Policy’. The ‘One India Policy’ policy means Indian sovereignty
over the entire J&K.
Remove the Ambiguity
on LAC in Ladakh
Ensure
meaningful talks when SRs meet for Sino-Indian Border talks. 22 meetings
have been held; however, India has only been discussing peripherals with
them. The NSA should be firm and say; in case the claim lines of China in
the Western Sector (Ladakh) is not given then there is no point in continuing
the so-called fruitless border discussions. Some timebound inputs have to
be obtained. In the Eastern Sector, there is no need to ask for claim
lines as ‘McMahon Line’ should be taken as the final one; that only needs to be
demarcated on the ground. In the Middle sector ‘Barahoti’ is on our
side of the Zanskar Ridge that is claimed and occupied by China. The IB
should run on the ridgeline of Zanskar Range going by the watershed principle.
No compromise should be accepted on our claim and it should be articulated in
clear and strong terms.
Be firm with China that the border
understanding cannot be left to the future generation as required by China but
should be sorted out to ensure peace and prosperity between the two countries.
Enhance cooperation
and trade with Taiwan and enhance political, economic and military support.
Clandestinely give technical support to Taiwan and Vietnam to become a nuclear
and missile powers as China had done to Pakistan to pit it against India.
Provide Brahmos
Missiles to Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines to dominate the
South China Sea. They should be given land, air and sea version of the
cruise missiles. Taiwan would be able to dominate Taiwan Straits as well.
Ensure Taiwan is
given an ‘Observer’s Status’ in WHO; now, that India is the head of the
executive committee.
Bring about an
entente between the USA and Russia and wean the latter away from
China. India should enhance its close cooperation with Russia.
Ensure close
cooperation and the elimination of distrust between South Korea and Japan as they have a
maritime dispute over Dokdo Islet. Act as an intermediary and ensure that
it is solved and their estrangement is removed. The US would be
keen to lead such an endeavour. India should facilitate it. The aim is to
isolate China in the Indo-Pacific. China’s only friend should be North
Korea and Cambodia.
Also, be an
intermediary to solve the territorial dispute over the Kurile Islands between
Russia and Japan. If Japan, Russia, South Korea act as one it will send
shivers up the spine of Beijing.
Support Japan to her
claim over the Senkaku Island chain which is claimed by China under
the name Diaoyu. Support Japan in its renaming the island as ‘Tonoshiro
Senkaku’.
Strengthen ‘Quad’ and
increase its Membership. Presently the members of Quad are the US,
Japan, Australia and India. Increase the membership with countries of SE
Asia who have a maritime dispute with China; such as the Philippines, Vietnam,
Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Singapore is a vibrant democracy and will
gladly join the fold. Innocuously, ensure the containment of China.
Support the littoral
countries of the South China Sea and insist the maritime borders
should be based on UNCLOS. Incidentally, China has signed and ratified the
treaty. Artificially constructed islands can neither command
territorial waters nor an EEZ. Join the movement led by the USA to ensure
the waters of the South China Sea are international waters.
India’s Naval
exercises ‘Malabar’ and ‘Milan’ should aim to get all the countries of Quad and
South East Asia to participate.
Give impetus to
strengthen the Indian Ocean Rim Association. It has 22 countries and the
grouping should have Biannual Naval Exercise with the theme ‘Indian Ocean for
Indian Ocean Regional Countries’ and measures to contribute to world trade and
development. It is not understood as to why India is not taking the lead
in integrating this group? It can be a positive counter to Chinese
expansion in the Indian Ocean.
Enhance cooperation
with Mongolia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. They have
borders with China. Though we modernised Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan, we
were not able to capitalise on the dividends. It would enable us to turn
the flanks of both China and Pakistan.
Give support to the
Democratic movement in Hong Kong. The National Security
Legislation imposed on Hong Kong by China is against the Sino-British Joint
Declaration. The declaration rules that the autonomy of Hong Kong will
not be interfered by China for fifty years after 1997. China’s impatience
to stifle democratic aspirations of People of Hong Kong has riled the world
community and the US has threatened to strip its special status given to Hong
Kong for trade and finance that has enabled it to become a ‘World Financial
Hub’. This would adversely affect China’s investments which are mostly
through Hong Kong.
Incite Insurgencies
in Xinjiang and Tibet. ‘East Turkmenistan Liberation Front’ an Uyghur organisation of
Xinjiang is fighting for independence from China. The Tibetan Youth
Congress is also fighting for Tibetan Independence. Give formal
recognition to ‘Tibetan Government in Exile’ (TGIE) located in Dharmsala.
If China can play around with words and change the LAC perception ad nauseam;
we should not hesitate to change our stance towards Tibet due to changed
circumstances. Agreement on Trade and Intercourse between India and China
for trade-in Tibet was signed on 29 April 1954 was valid for only eight years
and it has not been renewed since then. As the treaty is no more current, we
should declare; Tibet is not a part of China. Geographically India,
Tibet and Xinjiang have mutual common land boundaries with each other.
Provide financial, moral, arms and ammunition and training support, and incite
and sustain these insurgencies and build resistance movements in these
provinces of China. I am sure the reader is aware that the CIA supported
the Guerrilla Rebellion in Tibet in 1950s and 60s from Indian soil. Caches of
arms, ammunition and currencies were dropped in Tibet. We should also
forge an alliance between the insurgencies by Uyghurs and Tibet and enable them
to form a Joint Front to coordinate and sabotage Chinese assets and execute
raids on their security establishments. Wide-scale subversion should be
resorted to as the people of Tibet have immense faith in his Holiness Dalai
Lama. We all know the extent of discontent among the Uyghurs as
more than a million has been forcibly put in concentration camps
euphemistically called ‘Re-education Camps’. Both the provinces can be
made ripe for insurrection only if the Government of India has the political
will to pursue its strategic objective.
Economic Measures
Huawei 5G. Cancel Huawei
5G participation and in rolling out 5G network in India, immediately..
Cripple Chinese
Exports. China has become an export-oriented economy and if exports are hit; it
will cripple its industries and large-scale retrenchment of workers will take
place. This is a good opportunity to cause resentment among its populace
and spur an internal conflict. We all know how the one-party autocratic
rule is having a stranglehold over its people. It is a
gigantic convent at work. Any questions raised would be
blasphemous. The pent-up restraints in a billion people can erupt; all it
needs a spark to the powder barrel.
Action has already
been taken to prevent China from taking over our ventures by monitoring
investments from China. All Chinese FDIs would be monitored by the
Government.
The $50 billion trade
deficit has to be reduced. This should be taken as a unique
opportunity for India to manufacture goods locally. Alternatively, as all
sources of supply cannot be established within the country so soon; alternate
foreign sources of supply should be explored.
Get the Lowest Bid. The international
loans and aid that comes to India have strings attached as they have to be
given to the lowest bidder and China is generally, the lowest bidder as it can
exploit her own people to manufacture goods so cheap that no country can
compete. Have an understanding with Indian companies to underbid and win
contracts and the Government thereafter should compensate the Indian firms for
the losses incurred due to their underbids. This will ensure that China
would not be able to win any contract in India.
A people’s movement
is gaining grounds in India for boycotting Chinese goods; as the ‘Confederation
of Indian Traders’ has given a call to boycott goods of Chinese origin.
Uninstalling of Chinese apps and deactivation of membership from those firms
which have heavy investments from China is taking place. The government
should encourage the move and start encouraging the State Governments.
Maharashtra has already taken a lead on the issue.
Africa is all set to
fight against the predatory economics of China. Utilise the opportunity
to make an innocuous expansion of trade and economic cooperation with the
African countries. Most countries have already been conned by China and
they are looking for an opportunity to come out of the neo-colonial
stranglehold.
The ‘Trans-Pacific
Partnership’ a brainchild of Obama was further modified by Trump under a new
name ‘Blue Dot Network’ as a counter to China’s BRI. The BDN should
comprise the US, Japan, Australia, India and other democracies. It should
provide loans and technology to developing countries under absolute
transparency in contrast to opaque Chinese terms that lands the borrower as a
surrogate country to China.
Measures for improvement of Security and
Defence
Formulation of
‘National Security Strategy’. Our country with adversaries in
China and Pakistan and surviving under nuclear threat and beset with ongoing
terrorism and insurgencies for the past seven decades still does not have a
‘National Security Strategy’. Let alone planning the defence budgets we
have not even identified our threats from the two and a half fronts. We
have still not identified our Political Objectives in case of war and how they
translate into Military Objective against both China and Pakistan. The task was
given to the NSA and he is still in the act. It should not be vague and
should benchmark our military capabilities year wise in a ‘two and half front
war scenario’. The envisaged capacity building has to be supported by
compatible defence allocations to achieve such a capability. Unspent money
should be carried forward.
Assured Defence
Budget. Once the National Security Strategy is approved by the CCS the
same has to be signed by the PM. Thereafter the annual allocation of
defence budget should be assured based on the capacity building.
Otherwise; just see as to how our defence budgets are allocated. Chinese
attacked and humbled Nehru in 1962 then there was a sudden increase in the
defence budget. It enabled us to do well both in 1965 and 1971 Conflicts.
Again, the country was going to slumber and the present standoff is a blessing
in disguise to warn the government to get rid of its penchant to churn out
debilitating defence budgets. It should be a steady three per cent of the
GDP.
Ability to Defeat
China at Sea for its Belligerence on Land. Develop the ability to throttle
trade of China passing through the Indian Ocean by developing the capability to
throttle Malacca Straits, Sunda and Lombak and dominate Ombai Straits in
conjunction with Australia to deny the Indian Ocean to China. Andaman
Nicobar Archipelago is well poised to throttle Malacca Straits. We only
need to develop task forces to dominate Sunda, Lombak and Ombai Straits.
It is essential that we have a minimum of three aircraft carriers to harass, delay
and throttle Chinese Ships and destabilise their economy. The Achilles Heels of
China is in Indian Ocean.
Change of Allocation
of GOI Business Rules. Even after the appointment of CDS, the
major allocation of business rules has not changed in respect to the
responsibility for the defence of the country. It still lies with the
defence secretary. Let us see the present situation.
Ø MMRCA initiated in
1999 and after 21 years, we have only one aircraft with us. Rest of the
one-fourth of the earlier requirements are in pipeline.
Ø S-400 the anti-air
defence missile system has still not been received and the RM has gone to
Russia to expedite the supply.
Ø The third aircraft
carrier plans have been shelved by the MOD citing lack of funds.
Ø The Mountain Strike
Corps is stillborn as resource allocation for its raising has been stopped
midway.
Ø The scathing shortage
of critical ammunition and the Armed Forces have to scrape the bottom for ‘10
days intense battle’ reserve.
Ø Now let us rule out
the big-ticket weapons; the basic weapons; rifles, light machine guns and
carbines for frontline soldiers are in pipelines for several years.
Ø The RM had approved
in Jan 2109 to procure cum locally manufacture 6,71,427 AK-203 Rifles. The
Joint Venture is between OFB and the Russian firm. The OFB has not been
able to come to any understanding of the prices. Hence, with our enemy knocking
at our gates the Defence Secretary and his caboodle have not been able to wind
up the act to get the basic weapons for our soldier.
Ø During the entire
Indo-China standoff the MOD and the Defence Secretary were silent spectators;
let alone be responsible for the grand illusory task for the defence of the
country.
Ø The only talk the
Defence Secretary gave was on 22 May 2020; and, instead of highlighting
critical deficiency in ammunition and shortage of weapons and equipment; his
only refrain was the heavy pension bill of the Armed Forces. He reels out
cooked up figures that the Defence Pension Bill rose from 32000 crores to
1,33,000 crores.
Let me assure that
the Defence Secretary is talking glibly by manipulating data. Does it
mean each of the veterans would have got four times their erstwhile
pensions? Both CGDA and MOD intimidate decision-makers by reeling out
puffed up figures. In case the Defence secretary was really doing his job of
looking after the defence of the country, where does he have the time to go for
a public talk and project cooked up data on defence pensions? He should
be preparing the Armed Forces for war when China had built up across the
LAC.
RM to please ensure
that the responsibility to defend the country should lie with the CDS and not
the Defence Secretary, who does not have a clue as to how to go about it?
Integrating Armed Forces Officers into
MOD.
A long-pending
requirement to keep the naïve babus abreast with the service requirement was
recommended by GOM under Mr LK Advani besides by the Kargil Review Committee
under Mr Subramaniam. With the raising of the Department of Military
Affairs under the CDS, the requirement has been met partially; however,
no real integration has been done in other departments of the Ministry. I
have just mentioned that the Department of Defence under the Defence Secretary
function in their make-believe world of mutually comforting ignorance. He does
not even have a middle-ranking officer from the Armed Forces to advise him:
Decrepit state of affairs!
OFB and DRDO to be Accountable to the
Armed Forces.
These two
organisations function with no accountability to the user, the Armed Forces of
the Country. Look at the perpetual shortage of ammunition; the MOD that
exercises control over these two establishments is mutually hand in glove with
each other. Critical projects are delayed at the DRDO. The ammunition is
not only in short supply but last year a series of accidents and deaths of
troops took place due to defective ammunition. Last year the training on
L-70 Air Defence guns was stopped as an officer and the gun crew were
injured. The barrel of a new howitzer also burst due to defective
ammunition. The corporatisation of the OFB is being protested. The DRDO
with 52 laboratories and 7800 scientists has been inadequate, to put it
mildly. Astra Air to Air missiles, Anti-Tank Nag Missiles, Arjun Main
Battle Tank and Ballistic Missile Defence have been under various stage of
development for the past two to three decades. Instead of concentrating
on their main jobs, they have developed ‘Hand sanitiser’ and ‘Germi Clean’ to
sanitise uniform of police personnel. Does it need a DRDO to develop a chamber
to warm uniforms to 70 Celsius? It can be made by a local MSME.
Misplaced priorities have dogged the organisation. It is only the user
who can goad the organisation to focus on their main task and hold it
accountable for the delays.
Conclusion
India has responded
with firmness and fortitude and political will has been displayed by the
government. It has translated in the offensive military skirmish on the
border. The bravado and bullying of PLA have been replaced with sobriety
and sombreness. India’s face-saving is to ensure the PLA withdraws to
status quo ante Bellum as on 15 April 2020. PLA’s face-saving is to delay
and drag the military negotiations for months so that the spotlight over the
issue fades into irrelevance. There should not be any thinning of our
build-up until our aim is achieved. Political will builds Military
strength and should outlast Beijing’s scheme of delay and duplicity..
A good lesson for
India is not to starve its forces with paltry budget support. It was
China in 1962 that made us focus on our defence. It made us triumphant in
1965 and 1971. Similarly, in the past few years, when the Defence was
being neglected it is a timely reminder to us to shore up our defences for the
two and half front war. The shortages that we are facing are due to two
factors; one, political neglect for making naïve and rudderless Defence
Ministers and, the second; bureaucratic delays as this breed is not accountable
to anyone. During Kargil operations due to shortage of Bofors
ammunition, we ran around with a begging bowl in our hands. Now the RM
has gone to Russia with a bigger bowl. When will we ever learn?
‘Atma Nirbhar Bharat’ also means Bharat with ‘Strategic Autonomy’.
Tailpiece
Chinese build-up and deployment in ‘No
Man’s Land’ is not over. There is a likelihood of limited conflict. Please
support the Government. Congress and Communists are supporting the Communists
Party of China, but our country has learned to live with them since
independence and prospering in spite of them. Jai Hind!
About the author:
Veteran Lt Gen PG
Kamath, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, SM, is one of the most highly decorated officers of
the Indian Army. He retired as the Commandant, Army War College,
Mhow, a crucible for evolution of tactics, strategy and grand strategy; an
appointment that is the cynosure of eyes of all Combat Soldiers.
__._,_.___
By the kind courtesy
of
No comments:
Post a Comment